Pre-tourney Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 George Mason 83.7%   10   26 - 6 16 - 2 26 - 6 16 - 2 +11.4      +5.8 34 +5.7 36 66.7 209 +10.1 44 +13.3 1
61 Old Dominion 100.0%   8   27 - 6 14 - 4 27 - 6 14 - 4 +8.6      +4.3 61 +4.3 58 58.3 330 +12.2 27 +9.1 2
83 Virginia Commonwealth 23.2%   23 - 11 12 - 6 23 - 11 12 - 6 +5.7      +3.0 82 +2.7 84 68.3 161 +7.1 72 +5.1 4
101 James Madison 0.0%   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +4.0      +2.1 101 +1.9 104 70.7 102 +5.3 92 +3.0 6
109 Drexel 0.2%   21 - 10 11 - 7 21 - 10 11 - 7 +3.5      +1.5 119 +2.0 103 63.1 285 +5.6 89 +3.2 5
140 Hofstra 0.0%   20 - 11 14 - 4 20 - 11 14 - 4 +1.9      +1.1 135 +0.8 141 67.1 199 +5.1 93 +8.8 3
191 Northeastern 0.0%   11 - 20 6 - 12 11 - 20 6 - 12 -1.4      -0.5 181 -0.9 195 62.2 304 -2.3 198 -3.0 10
200 Delaware 0.0%   14 - 17 8 - 10 14 - 17 8 - 10 -2.4      -1.2 200 -1.2 198 63.7 272 0.0 167 +0.2 7
213 UNC Wilmington 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 11 -2.9      -1.4 210 -1.5 215 60.2 321 -3.0 213 -2.0 8
216 William & Mary 0.0%   9 - 22 4 - 14 9 - 22 4 - 14 -3.0      -1.4 208 -1.6 222 63.0 288 -5.5 254 -5.7 11
217 Georgia St. 0.0%   12 - 19 6 - 12 12 - 19 6 - 12 -3.1      -1.7 226 -1.4 208 63.6 274 -4.4 235 -2.7 9
272 Towson 0.0%   4 - 26 0 - 18 4 - 26 0 - 18 -6.8      -3.1 266 -3.7 280 67.4 189 -11.5 320 -19.0 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
George Mason 1.0 100.0
Old Dominion 2.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.0 100.0
James Madison 6.0 100.0
Drexel 5.0 100.0
Hofstra 2.0 100.0
Northeastern 9.0 100.0
Delaware 7.0 100.0
UNC Wilmington 8.0 100.0
William & Mary 11.0 100.0
Georgia St. 9.0 100.0
Towson 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
George Mason 16 - 2 100.0
Old Dominion 14 - 4 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 100.0
James Madison 10 - 8 100.0
Drexel 11 - 7 100.0
Hofstra 14 - 4 100.0
Northeastern 6 - 12 100.0
Delaware 8 - 10 100.0
UNC Wilmington 7 - 11 100.0
William & Mary 4 - 14 100.0
Georgia St. 6 - 12 100.0
Towson 0 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
George Mason 100.0% 100.0
Old Dominion
Virginia Commonwealth
James Madison
Drexel
Hofstra
Northeastern
Delaware
UNC Wilmington
William & Mary
Georgia St.
Towson


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
George Mason 83.7% 0.0% 83.7% 10   0.0 0.5 1.6 5.9 15.0 27.3 23.8 9.6 0.0 16.3 83.7%
Old Dominion 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.7 21.2 30.7 31.6 14.6 1.2 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 23.2% 0.0% 23.2% 0.3 2.5 19.9 0.5 76.8 23.2%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Drexel 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.2%
Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
George Mason 83.7% 5.4% 81.3% 39.4% 12.3% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Old Dominion 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 41.8% 9.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 23.2% 16.1% 12.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 11.9 69.2 18.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 15.7 74.7 9.6
2nd Round 67.0% 0.8 33.0 50.3 16.3 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 20.9% 0.2 79.1 19.7 1.2
Elite Eight 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.0 0.1
Final Four 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1